Conjecture

Part I applies its own organised-complexity argument to medicine, and the structural point is strong. A core tenet of western allopathic medicine is that the body can be divided into siloes in which problems are treated individually while the rest is ignored, so a person's gut is treated as unrelated to their brain or heart. That ignores the interdependence between the body's systems, and the mismatch matters because evolution modifies organisms according to what works rather than what is simple. The incentive diagnosis is the sharper half: trained inside the modern medical system you learn that the best thing you can do is prescribe, not recommend a change of life, so to a hammer everything looks like a nail. This is Weaver's middle class of problems reappearing in clinical practice, which is the same objection Part I makes to prediction in economics.

Risk landscape