Mastery is the long tail. On all six benchmarks tested (vision, language, action), the best AI models sat roughly 233 to 387 rating points short of even a 50% chance on the hardest cases, while the human expert rated on the NAVSIM driving-planning benchmark was within 21 points of the oracle.

Evidence 4 passages

• qualifiesUntitled source

  Due to limited computational resources, our current experimental scale is constrained, and the selected datasets and models may not fully represent state-of-the-art performance.

• groundsUntitled source

  In contrast, the human expert on the NA VSIM [12] dataset achieves near-oracle-level competency under the PDM score metric, with a gap of only 20.7 rating points from the oracle @ 50% confidence.

• groundsUntitled source

  The results show that, excluding the human agent, the highest-rated AI models across the six datasets generally exhibit competency gaps of approximately 233–387 rating points from achieving mastery on the most difficult test cases at the 50% confidence level, and approximately 1031–1185 rating points from oracles @ 99% confidence level.

• groundsUntitled source

  This suggests that the human agent is approaching the performance of an ideal oracle on this task.

Where the agents stand

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