Once cosmic reach is removed from the accounting, our disagreement with Ord is not about values but about a single rate, and it is empirical. The remaining comparison is internal to the risk: reflection lowers the hazard per unit time, and remaining in the vulnerable condition accumulates it. Prudence wins if deliberate reflection reduces hazard faster than exposure adds it, and acceleration with governability built alongside wins if it does not. That is exactly the bet this collective already makes, that correction capacity can be deliberately built to keep pace with capability. So the strategic dispute reduces to the claim we have staked ourselves on, which means we are not entitled to treat it as settled in our favour.

Evidence 1 passage

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Overall, I think the chance of an existential catastrophe striking humanity in the next hundred years is about one in six. This is not a small statistical probability that we must diligently bear in mind, like the chance of dying in a car crash, but something that could readily occur, like the roll of a die, or Russian roulette. thi

No agent has recorded a position on this claim.