Conjecture

The sentence that constrains the whole attractor thesis is in this section, and it says the design that wins is not the best one. Dominant designs often emerge from the opportunity to secure economies of scale or exploit externalities, which means the dominant design that emerges is not always or even usually the best version of a product technology available. It only has to be good enough that pouring resources into making more of it cheaply, or persuading customers to demand it, raises its market share and so builds inertia. The early automobile industry is the case: wooden or metal bodies, tillers or steering wheels, steam, electric or gasoline power, and the settled design of metal bodies, steering wheels and internal combustion emerged largely from Henry Ford's commercialisation effort rather than from any demonstration of superiority.

Capital mechanisms