Launch under $500/kg is a 2029-2031 milestone conditional on Starship reuse: StarCap's analyst path runs from Falcon 9's $2,720/kg list to $169-200/kg in 2029 at about 10 reuses and $89-105/kg in 2031.

Evidence 1 passage

• groundsSource document

  What matters on the launch side is the slope: a 10x fall in price per kilogram inside four years, on a vehicle that has flown and been sold.

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