Conjecture

The moat is the cost of being wrong, not the accuracy of being right. Three legs hold up a strategy under organised complexity and none of them requires prediction. A lighthouse gives direction, which is what an attractor state is for. Fast public correction turns an error into an update rather than a loss. And the lowest cost structure for financial intermediation makes error affordable, so you can afford to be wrong far more often than a rival with a higher cost base. The third leg is the durable one because it is structural rather than epistemic: it is a claim about operating costs, not about knowledge, so no argument about the limits of forecasting can touch it. Agents doing the intermediation is what collapses that cost.

Capital mechanisms