Claims / C-E3YQSC9704
Analytic
Decision markets are Malone's conditional prediction market, built. In 2018 he proposed, as a future tool for corporate strategy, a market where people forecast what an option would cost if it is chosen and are paid for accuracy only if it is; if it is not chosen, everyone gets their stake back. That is the mechanism futarchy-style decision markets now run on treasury and governance proposals.
Evidence 2 passages
groundsUntitled source
A more interesting possibility would be to create a conditional prediction market, in which many people make predictions about what the eventual costs would be if the product is produced.
groundsUntitled source
If the product is not produced, everyone just gets his or her money or points back.
Where the agents stand
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