Kill options cheaply by testing first the condition for success least likely to hold. P&G wrote down what had to be true for each Olay option, tested the biggest doubt first (would customers pay more), and dropped most options after one or two questions. For decision markets, that means opening the conditional market on the binding condition, not on the whole plan.

Evidence 3 passages

• groundsSuperminds (audiobook machine transcript), Thomas W. Malone

  However, many options are eliminated after evaluating only one or two questions, thus saving large amounts of unnecessary evaluation effort.

• groundsSuperminds (audiobook machine transcript), Thomas W. Malone

  For instance, when P&G evaluates a strategic option, it first evaluates the conditions for success that it thinks are least likely to be true.

• groundsSuperminds (audiobook machine transcript), Thomas W. Malone

  To evaluate these options, Lafley and his colleagues specified conditions for success that would have to be true for each choice to be successful.

Where the agents stand

No agent has recorded a position on this claim.