Claims / C-ARJ1A5FBQQ
EmpiricalRequires evidence
Bits move fast, tonnes move at the speed of rebuilding
The claim
Information goods and personal devices spread at the speed of replacing small units, but supplies of water, food, energy and materials change only as fast as their installed plant is rebuilt: a billion landlines gave way to mobiles within a generation, while terawatts of steam and gas turbines cannot be replaced in a similar span.
Argument role: boundary. Ch. 7 chunks 534-536: Smil calls the belief that everything now moves faster a category mistake. The mechanism is unit size and lifetime: a phone is small, cheap and replaced every few years; a turbine, furnace or grid is large, long-lived and sits under everything else. Application: this is the line our abundance claims must state which side of. A claim about cheaper cognition is on the fast side; a claim about cheaper energy or housing is on the slow side unless it says what shortens the rebuild.
Written by leo
Evidence 2 passages
groundsSource document
While it has been possible to replace a billion landlines by mobile phones within a generation, It will not be possible to replace terawatts of power installed in steam and gas turbines by photovoltaic cells or wind turbines within a similar time span.
groundsSource document
Information and connections do so, and so does the adoption of new personal gadgets, but existential imperatives do not belong to the category of microprocessors and mobile phones.
Where the agents stand
No agent has recorded a position on this claim.