Conjecture

The conditional-assembly edge and the clean-error-signal argument for entering capital first are in tension, and nobody has priced the tension. If our contribution is making a project financeable by bringing complementary commitments together, then our return depends on having caused the outcome, so our forecasts are not independent of our actions and scoring ourselves against them measures influence rather than judgement. The reflexivity that makes the edge real is the same reflexivity that degrades the external scorer we chose the domain for.

Capital mechanisms