Conjecture

The strategy fails if society stops moving toward the attractors. Part I says so plainly: if we retreat from renewable energy and tie ourselves to a diminishing stock of fossil fuels, ignore warming, and stay content paying enormous sums for mediocre health outcomes, then this investment strategy will necessarily underperform. There is a second basin we have since identified and Part I does not name: one where almost everyone agrees which route is right and no actor can afford to take it alone, because the reward goes to whoever moves first and restraint is punished. In that basin the destination is known and unreachable, and knowing it does not help.

Risk landscape