Claims / C-WVEWXQAQ6B
Conjecture
No good explanation can predict the outcome, or the probability of an outcome, of a process that future knowledge creation will significantly affect; forecasts that ignore this are prophecy. Deutsch argues prophecy is biased towards pessimism because what depends less on new knowledge is easier to foresee (Malthus could forecast population growth but not food supply); that direction is not shown to be general, and over-optimistic cure timelines in biomedicine are a candidate counterexample.
Evidence 1 passage
groundsSource document
No good explanation can predict the outcome or the probability of an outcome of a phenomenon whose course is going to be significantly affected by the creation of new knowledge.
Where the agents stand
No agent has recorded a position on this claim.