An early product counts as a stepping stone only if it names the skills it carries into the next, larger market.

backsWhy Information Grows: The Evolution of Order, from Atoms to Economies, César A. Hidalgo

Also, the jigsaw puzzle analogy tells us that industries are more likely to succeed in the places that already have many of the pieces that an industry requires.

qualifiesThe Infinite Alphabet, hidalgo

This is because relationships based on shared knowledge can be quite different from value chain relationships.

qualifiesSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

Combining select conditions from the sensitivity analyses can lead to a cost-competitive SBSP system. The rationale for these choices is presented in the following section. In the “combined” sensitivity, we modified key input variables accordingly: • Launch costs reduced from $100M or $1000/kg (with 15% block buy discount, $85M or 850/kg) to $50M or $500/kg (with 15% block buy discount, $42.5M or $425/kg) • Solar cell efficiency increased from 35% to 50% • Servicer and ADR first-unit cost reduced from $1B to $100M and $500M to $50M, respectively • Learning curves improved by 5 percentage points across the board 22 • Hardware lifetime extended from 10 to 15 years • Instead of the LEO-refueling deployment scenario, ConOps uses EP for orbital transfer, adding 17.2% more mass and cost to SBSP system hardware Under these conditions, total system costs decrease by 95% and 93% for RD1 and RD2, respectively. GHG emissions decrease by nearly 86% and 89% for RD1 and RD2, respectively. These conditions would make SBSP systems highly competitive with any assessed terrestrial renewable electricity production technology’s 2050 cost projections and 2021 emissions intensity.

qualifiesSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

This study did not fully account for the changes in the Sun’s position over the year, or how multiple RD2 systems in orbit may increase the capacity factor of the entire architecture. Multiple systems would increase the capacity factor; however, landmass on the Earth does not allow for even distribution across the day-night cycle, because much of the equator is underwater. This study is concerned with comparing representative examples of SBSP. Others may take the model developed for this study to further develop their own, more detailed analyses.

qualifiesSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

4. Industrial Base and Supply Chain – The scale of the SBSP reference designs would aggravate industrial base and supply chain hurdles, including raw material and skilled workforce availability, that are common to all space missions. Our work did not assess whether the aerospace industry can realistically support the level of effort required for SBSP and what changes, if any, would be required to support this demand.

backsSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

For both systems Maintain comprises over 50% of the overall cost. Assemble costs comprise about 25% of total cost for both systems. The most impactful cost element is launch, representing 71% and 77% of total cost for RD1 and RD2, respectively.

backsSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

ISAM capabilities required for developing and operating an SBSP system (ConOps Assemble and Maintain phases) are not currently available. There are few existing commercial capabilities for activities such as assembly, refueling, in-space manufacturing, and formation flying. The market for ISAM is unproven, with many proposed technologies as yet untested in space. The ISAM business case has development and operational risks that may limit private investment. Unless the Government steps in to support this nascent industry, services will be limited and expensive.

qualifiesSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

This is a first-order assessment of notional systems: Cost and GHG emissions estimates are not exhaustive, and outputs are heavily influenced by assumptions about a technology with no historical data points built and operated in an unknown future. • The reference designs assessed are not representative of all proposed SBSP architectures: For example, systems in lower orbits have been proposed but are not assessed in this study.

qualifiesSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

Despite significant advances in mass manufacturing of satellites, learning curves and costs have not come down to the level needed for the scale required to support SBSP system development. Findings from this report and supporting research suggest the industry needs to reach annual production of at least thousands of satellites to reach the learning curves described in this assessment.

qualifiesSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

Most SBSP challenges and opportunities are shared by the global space sector. There are ongoing efforts to leverage emerging opportunities and industry trends to address many of these challenges. Below we discuss some representative examples.

qualifiesSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

While manufacturing does tend to improve with experience, and the scale of SBSP constitutes significant experience, we cannot assume that this will be the case until it happens.

qualifiesSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

This study did not assess the potential of novel architectures. However, improvements and new designs currently being studied may lead to lower costs or higher efficiency.

qualifiesSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

Our analysis looked at the costs to get to the first full-scale system in place, but did not consider whether efficiencies would be realized over time as additional SBSP systems are deployed. Additional analysis should be conducted to assess whether there are opportunities to lower the costs of future SBSP systems once the initial capability is demonstrated.

qualifiesSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

With today’s technology, remote operators would be required for at least some operations, making assembly labor intensive and more time consuming than is assumed in this study’s baseline assessment.

qualifiesSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

Power beaming is a technical challenge that was not discussed as part of the sensitivity analyses. Power beaming from space was first demonstrated in June 2023 (Caltech, 2023), though at a scale that is orders of magnitude below what is baselined for the systems studied in this report or proposed elsewhere. Significant advances are needed before commercial-scale SBSP power- beaming systems would be technically feasible.

qualifiesSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

There are non-technical issues with SBSP that may prove challenging, such as debris remediation, spectrum allocation, orbital slots, and security.

qualifiesSource document

What many people do not appreciate is that technology does not automatically improve; it only improves if a lot of really strong engineering talent is applied to the problem.

backsSource document

This last set of results suggests that the proximity between products in the The Product Space is related to the similarity of the requisite capabilities that go into a product, because countries tend to jump into products that require capabilities that are similar to those required by the products they already export.

qualifiesSpace-Based Solar Power, NASA Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (Erica Rodgers, Ellen Gertsen, Jordan Sotudeh, Carie Mullins, Amanda Hernandez, Hanh Nguyen Le, Phil Smith, Nikolai Joseph)

Mass manufacturing, as seen with Starlink and OneWeb satellites, may reduce space hardware production costs in general, potentially benefitting unrelated space manufacturing activities, including SBSP. While manufacturing does tend to improve with experience, and the scale of SBSP constitutes significant experience, we cannot assume that this will be the case until it happens.