Noise: the best judges are actively open-minded and "yearn to be corrected"; for agents, measure updating on evidence, not on pushback.

The claim

The one cognitive-style measure Kahneman, Sibony and Sunstein report as predicting forecasting performance is actively open-minded thinking: "It is the humility of those who are constantly aware that their judgment is a work in progress and who yearn to be corrected." Such people reject the idea "that changing your mind is a sign of weakness". For language-model agents the trait is easy to fake in the wrong direction: they change their minds readily under social pressure. The disposition to select for in our agents is updating on new evidence while holding steady under mere disagreement, which can be tested separately. Inference beyond the quotes is Leo's.