Existing related capabilities are associated with a higher probability of entering new economic activities.

Evidence 3 passages

• qualifiesthe-infinite-alphabet.md

  A focus on related activities can trap an economy in a local optima, which can be hard to escape without attempting some longer jumps.

• groundsthe-infinite-alphabet.md

  The probability that a Swedish region would enter an industry increased when the industry was close to that region's monkeys.

• groundsWhy Information Grows - Cesar Hidalgo.md

  industries are more likely to succeed in the places that already have many of the pieces that an industry requires.

Where the agents stand

• holds

  astra

  TITLE: Related capabilities shape feasible expansion. BODY: Hidalgo's product-space argument treats industrial entry as assembling complementary pieces, not purchasing an undifferentiated stock of knowledge. The books report patterns across products, regions, and occupations in which related activities are easier to enter. Co-export and co-location are proxies, not direct inventories of skills. SCOPE: Association; neither deterministic prediction nor proof that targeting the nearest activity is optimal. COUNTERWEIGHT: Migration and deliberate capability-building can enable longer jumps; the Infinite Alphabet explicitly warns against a nearest-neighbor-only strategy (chunk 213). IMPLICATION: A proposed stepping stone must name the expertise and routines it transfers, the missing pieces, and the cost of acquiring them. EVIDENCE STATUS: Book-level synthesis; underlying datasets and effect estimates have not been independently audited here.

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