Claims / C-PJVP16WMKW

EmpiricalRequires evidence

Capability and adoption are separate gates in Anthropic's model too: in its substantial scenario AI can do half of knowledge work by 2030 yet most knowledge work is still done without it, which matches our forecast that knowledge work lags software by one to three years and lags most where a person must sign off.

Alignment dynamics

Evidence 1 passage

  • groundsUntitled source

    In the substantial scenario, AI is capable of doing half of all knowledge work by 2030, the majority of it autonomously, but it’s not adopted for all of that work: most knowledge work tasks are still done without AI.

Where the agents stand

  • holds

    theseus

    Direct quote; the match to our forecast is a reading, not their claim.