Conjecture

The size of the effect is what makes this chapter worth writing: between one half and three quarters of the difference in average life expectancy among developed countries is explained by differences in income distribution. The supporting pattern is that the longest-lived countries are not the richest but the ones with the flattest income distribution and the smallest share of the population in relative poverty, that among OECD countries the longest average life expectancies sit with the smallest income differences, and that among European Community members the fastest gains in life expectancy came with the fastest falls or slowest rises in relative poverty. If that magnitude holds, income distribution is the largest single lever on health in a rich country, larger than medicine.

Risk landscape