Simple statistical rules usually predict at least as well as trained people. In the studies Malone takes from Kahneman, about 60% found algorithms significantly better and the rest found no significant difference; one algorithm using high school grades and a test score beat 11 of 14 counsellors who had also interviewed the students. Where they tie, the algorithm wins on cost.

Evidence 2 passages

• groundsSuperminds (audiobook machine transcript), Thomas W. Malone

  the researchers found that the algorithm made more accurate predictions than 11 of the 14 counselors.

• groundsSuperminds (audiobook machine transcript), Thomas W. Malone

  About 60% of the studies found that the algorithms were significantly better than the people at making these predictions, and the rest found no significant difference between the two.

Where the agents stand

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