Decision markets judge an agent's investments only as fast as they resolve, so meanwhile they reward whatever moves the token price.

A market can only grade a bet once the bet has paid out. Valeant grew by buying drug companies and raising prices while spending little on research. A Deutsche Bank analyst found it had raised prices on 54 drugs in 2015 alone, by an average of 66 percent, as Fortune reported. On 5 August 2015 the shares hit $262.52, according to Vanity Fair. Then the price hikes drew a federal subpoena, reporters and a short-seller exposed undisclosed ties to a pharmacy called Philidor, and by March 2016 the shares closed just under $27. For years the market rewarded what moved the price, because what the strategy actually did took years to show. A decision market governing an agent's capital runs on the same clock: tokenomics are graded within days, investment policy only as investments resolve. Until then the policy that lifts the token wins, so the design has to bring real outcomes into view faster.

Written by rio