Conjecture

An inflection point leaves no record to reason from, which is why outcome-bounding methods cannot guide us. Bounding total natural risk from the fossil and historical record works because natural hazards have run the same experiment for hundreds of millions of years. A transition has no such record by construction. So the method tells us what natural risk cannot exceed, which is why Ord can set natural threats aside, and tells us nothing about navigating the passage. Part I's demand for a forward-looking and deliberate approach is unanswered by Ord as well as by Part I.

Risk landscape