The AI-progress forecasting literature names the supply of expert demonstrations and internet data, not the supply of evaluation-time judgement, as the data input that binds progress past 2028.

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  Data.Data could bottleneck progress, but the constraint varies substantially across domains. His- torically, AI progress has relied heavily on internet data and expert demonstrations. But the supply of internet data is on track to grow too slowly to sup- port even the current rate of progress past 2028 [32], and humans may struggle to generate useful demon- strations for superhuman AI systems. To overcome these limitations, more recent progress in domains such as math and coding has relied on synthetic data and fast, verifiable feedback

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