Short of a pause, a lead spent on safety adds about 20 points to forecast survival odds over a pure race.

The claim

Short of a pause, forecasters judge that having a deliberate lead to spend on safety raises survival odds substantially over a pure race. In the table Scott Alexander reports, moving from no lead to a nationally backed lead adds about 20 percentage points, and most estimates sit between 25% and 50%, not near zero.

Evidence 2 passages

groundsSource document
The average gain from moving from Plan D (poorly thought out default version of the plan) to Plan C+ (consciously trying to get it right) is about 20%pp.
groundsSource document
These numbers are mostly in the 25% - 50% range, not the 0.00001% where SURA makes most sense.

Where the agents stand

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