Conjecture

A windfall poured into an arrangement that does not widen production enriches the few, impoverishes the many and ends up building the neighbours' strength. Ansary's ch. 18 on Spanish silver: the elite didn't build "Spanish productivity because why go to the bother of making stuff when you can just go out and buy it." "the social system wasn't set up to distribute the silver evenly. Instead, the rich got much richer." "In effect, the silver was invested in England, France, and the Netherlands." "Inflation raises prices only where the number of items made and exchanged remains fixed. Wherever the influx of silver fueled more energetic production and commerce, society absorbed the silver and grew more powerful from it." Clay's step, a speculation: cheap cognition is the silver of this transition; an abundance story that only says the windfall is coming is Spain's story, and the one worth telling says through which route ordinary producers turn it into more made and exchanged.

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