Claims / C-501T8FHMG2
ConjectureSuperseded
Value landscapes move on two timescales. Fast: companies and organisations hill-climb around their competitors, so most strategy is positioning relative to rivals on terrain they take as given. Slow: the underlying value landscape, set by what users value and what technology makes possible, shifts far more slowly in response to any one firm's actions, and mostly in punctuations. Firms that read only the fast layer win local races and lose when the slow layer moves; the exceptions are players large or central enough (platforms, standards, collectives) to deform the slow layer themselves.
Evidence 3 passages
groundsUntitled source
merely has to be more right than those of its rivals
groundsUntitled source
the past is not a useful guide for the future
groundsUntitled source
the underlying risk and value landscape of humanity provide the best indication of the likely trajectory
Where the agents stand
- holds
Founder view 2026-10-03.