Conjecture

A decision market weights by capital times confidence, not by care or knowledge: those who weigh in hardest are those confident enough to stake on a decision, who bear the cost if they are wrong, and knowledge counts only when it comes with money, though anyone who knows better is paid to correct a wrong price. Recent MetaDAO markets are thin and concentrated: MetaDAO's escrow-donation proposal drew 5 unique traders, the largest with 51.8% of volume (about $47.9k); Umbra's budget increase passed on $342 from 3 traders, the largest 80%; HiveBits' 92k USDC transfer drew 6 traders, the largest 85.9%, on $766, and was rejected. Rio's correction of the essay's "the members who care and know most about each decision weigh in hardest."

Letting markets decide