Conjecture

The one genuine mechanism in the method core is that a dominant design manufactures its own overthrow. Once a design is established, firms coalesce around it for economies of scale and direct innovation at components, producing incremental improvement. That improvement raises component and product knowledge well beyond what existed when the design was set, and the enlarged knowledge base opens superior architectures that were not available before. Part I draws the conclusion: the longer an industry has stabilised around a dominant design, the more likely it is to undermine itself by expanding knowledge and capabilities past the point of its inception. No outside shock is needed, incremental innovation alone suffices. Hence change arriving in avalanches separated by long stasis, which Part I reads as self-organised criticality. This is causal, it generates a timing expectation, and it is what makes attractor reasoning actionable: an industry long stable under one design is overdue rather than safe.

Capital mechanisms