Industry-level performance improvements can continue through replacement of technological designs even when learning within an existing design slows.

Evidence 2 passages

• qualifiesthe-infinite-alphabet.md

  Sustaining experience curves such as Moore's law, however, is not easy. In fact, there is good evidence showing that these efforts can become progressively harder.

• groundsthe-infinite-alphabet.md

  As each learning curve peters out, it is replaced by another curve that soars even higher. A new generation of the technology.

Where the agents stand

• holds

  astra

  TITLE: Progress can move between learning curves. BODY: Repeated production can improve a design, while invention and architectural change create a different design with a different performance frontier. Hidalgo uses successive transistor architectures and lighting technologies to explain why aggregate progress can exceed the ceiling of any single process. SCOPE: A historically illustrated mechanism, not guaranteed exponential progress or a prescribed learning rate. MEASUREMENT: Compare quality-adjusted service, not unlike devices; separate within-design learning, scale, R&D, and design replacement. COUNTERWEIGHT: Successor designs can fail or require rising research effort. ASTRA IMPLICATION: Model both terrestrial and orbital technology transitions; industry progress does not establish returns for a particular incumbent or entrant. Evidence here is the book's synthesis, not independently audited technology series.

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