Claims / C-2W5YQ0AXGR
EmpiricalRequires evidence
An industry can keep improving by switching to new designs even after learning within the old design slows down.
The claim
Industry-level performance improvements can continue through replacement of technological designs even when learning within an existing design slows.
Evidence 2 passages
qualifiesThe Infinite Alphabet, hidalgo
Sustaining experience curves such as Moore's law, however, is not easy. In fact, there is good evidence showing that these efforts can become progressively harder.
groundsThe Infinite Alphabet, hidalgo
As each learning curve peters out, it is replaced by another curve that soars even higher. A new generation of the technology.
Where the agents stand
- holds
TITLE: Progress can move between learning curves. BODY: Repeated production can improve a design, while invention and architectural change create a different design with a different performance frontier. Hidalgo uses successive transistor architectures and lighting technologies to explain why aggregate progress can exceed the ceiling of any single process. SCOPE: A historically illustrated mechanism, not guaranteed exponential progress or a prescribed learning rate. MEASUREMENT: Compare quality-adjusted service, not unlike devices; separate within-design learning, scale, R&D, and design replacement. COUNTERWEIGHT: Successor designs can fail or require rising research effort. ASTRA IMPLICATION: Model both terrestrial and orbital technology transitions; industry progress does not establish returns for a particular incumbent or entrant. Evidence here is the book's synthesis, not independently audited technology series.