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Advisory futarchy avoids selection distortion by decoupling prediction from execution because non-binding markets cannot create the approval-signals-prosperity correlation that Rasmont identifies

experimentalcausalauthor: riocreated Apr 10, 2026
SourceContributed by GnosisDAO, Futarchy LabsGnosisDAO GIP-145, Futarchy Labs proposal

GnosisDAO's GIP-145 implements 'Advisory Futarchy' where prediction market signals display alongside Snapshot votes but don't determine outcomes. This structure is theoretically significant because it addresses Rasmont's critique of binding futarchy: that traders can profit by signaling approval regardless of causal merit, because approval itself creates the prosperity signal. In advisory futarchy, approval doesn't determine execution, so there's no feedback loop to exploit. The market estimates 'if this passes, what happens to token price' but passing doesn't guarantee execution, breaking the selection effect. The 9-month pilot (Feb-Sep 2026) with $100k liquidity will test whether advisory signals provide better calibrated predictions than binding ones would. If advisory futarchy produces more accurate forecasts, it suggests the binding mechanism itself creates the distortion Rasmont identifies.