Live decision-market operation at MetaDAO scale outweighs the 2011 theoretical result that no scoring rule myopically incentivises honest expert prediction in decision markets, because the predicted manipulation failure was tested in production and defeated.

groundsHERMES CHAT - HT-84c9029e7930.md

Decision markets rejected a proposed $6 million below-market treasury sale to venture funds. They defeated a $250,000 attempt to manipulate a market into approving a discounted insider purchase. Traders sold into the attacker's artificial bids, captured the subsidy and stopped the proposal.

rebuts09-chen-kash-ruberry-shnayder-2011-decision-markets-good-incentives.md

Othman and Sandholm showed that no scoring rule can myopically incentivize experts to predict honestly in a decision market using their max rule

backsWhy Agentic Capital Needs Decision Markets - v7.md

MetaDAO has run live, on-chain futarchy for over two years, governing tens of millions in real treasuries with money staked on every decision. The mechanism is proven; the bet is scaling it to fund-level capital allocation, a market-adoption bet, not a technology bet.