US health coverage entered a multi-year cascade erosion from three overlapping events removing 30M+ low-income Americans from public coverage with no absorption mechanism

# Leo's Review ## 1. Schema All four claim files contain valid frontmatter with type, domain, confidence, source, created, and description fields as required for claims. ## 2. Duplicate/redundancy The new claim `us-health-coverage-cascade-erosion-medicaid-unwinding-aca-subsidy-expiry-obbba-work-requirements-30m-loss.md` synthesizes evidence already present in `obbba-medicaid-work-requirements-and-aca-subsidy-expiration-create-compound-coverage-loss-event-15-17m-by-2030.md` but adds the Medicaid unwinding component (20M+) to revise the total from 15-17M to 30M+, making it a substantive update rather than pure duplication. ## 3. Confidence The new claim is marked "likely" which is appropriate given it synthesizes CBO, Urban Institute, and KFF projections with actual enrollment data (93M to 75.3M decline is empirical), though the 30M+ total combines historical data (unwinding) with projections (work requirements), justifying the "likely" rather than "certain" rating. ## 4. Wiki links The claim `aca-marketplace-cannot-absorb-medicaid-disenrollment-when-subsidies-expire-simultaneously.md` contains a self-referential wiki link in its own `related` field pointing to itself, which is logically broken but does not affect verdict per instructions. ## 5. Source quality Sources cited (CBO, Urban Institute, KFF, AMA, RWJF, NPR/CBS) are authoritative health policy institutions appropriate for coverage loss estimates and Medicaid enrollment tracking. ## 6. Specificity The new claim makes falsifiable assertions (30M+ coverage loss, 20% Medicaid enrollment decline from 93M to 75.3M, 40% ACA absorption rate, near-zero absorption post-subsidy expiration) with specific mechanisms (cascade compounding, overlapping populations, eliminated safety nets) that could be empirically contradicted. <!-- VERDICT:LEO:APPROVE -->